Expected goals stat suggests West Ham have been unlucky this season

This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…

West Ham may have struggled in goal of late but the stats suggest that Manuel Pellegrini’s side have been down on luck.

On the chalkboard

The Hammers have just 12 goals in ten league games this term and the finger of blame has been pointed in several directions.

Pellegrini has stated that more movement is required of Sebastien Haller, but fans think he has targeted the wrong player, and their vocal criticism of Felipe Anderson and Manuel Lanzini would suggest there has been a lack of service.

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However, Declan Rice believes that the team isn’t doing a lot wrong, suggesting it is a case of being more clinical, saying: “We’re creating enough, but we’re not scoring enough. In the Premier League you need to kill teams off and we haven’t been doing that of late.”

Under performing or simply unlucky?

According to the xG (expected goals) stats provided by Understat, the East London outfit should have 1.59 more goals from open play and 1.12 from corners – with Jordan Pickford’s remarkable save to keep out Angelo Ogbonna at Goodison Park the stand-out in that area.

Evidently, the xG stats indicate that Rice may be onto something in regard to their lack of proficiency in front of goal.

The positive for West Ham this season is that they have been competitive in all but one league match, the exception being the match against Manchester City, and if they could add more goals they could be challenging for the European qualification spots.

Pellegrini recognised the flaw last week by replacing Lanzini with Robert Snodgrass, with the Scot scoring where Lanzini had missed a couple of weeks before against Crystal Palace.

Under Pellegrini the Hammers have slightly improved going forward, scoring 52 league goals last term compared to 48 the year before, and the match against Sheffield United proved that they can be dominant in possession with 61% of the ball.

However, that fixture also underlined their poor finishing, with Anderson and Snodgrass guilty of missing chances they should have finished, and that explains why West Ham have won only three times in the league this season.

Another factor worth noting is Sebastien Haller replacing Marko Arnautovic. In ten games he has shown glimpses of what he can offer but it will take time for him to adapt and discover his mojo in front of goal.

When he adapts and hits top form the Hammers might just start to see a notable upturn in their fortunes.

Aston Villa’s vision is on track as Dean Smith passes one-year landmark

This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…

Wednesday signalled the one-year anniversary of Aston Villa appointing Dean Smith as their new manager following the sacking of Steve Bruce.

It’s fair to say that the appointment has led to where they are today as the club embarked on a historic campaign last season, culminating in them clinching promotion in the Championship playoff final.

The mood at Villa Park prior to his appointment was quite frankly ugly, and it had gotten to the stage that a pensioner had launched a cabbage at the head of Bruce.

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Now a year on, no such items are being thrown on the pitch as Smith has now probably cemented his legend status, after all, he’s ‘one of their own.’

The fanbase must surely be thrilled by the fact that they are back in the top-flight after a three-year hiatus.

During that time, the team managed to pick themselves up a record – ten straight wins without a defeat. This run of form ultimately springboarded Villa from a team that looked down and out following Bruce’s destruction to a side buoyed by the momentum of sneaking into the playoffs.

Although, all of this has been part of the wider story.

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When the 48-year-old was appointed, Villa CEO Christian Purslow said: “Most importantly, he has a very recognisable football coaching philosophy.

“His motivation, energy, and hunger to manage at the highest level is another outstanding feature of Dean. He really understands what Aston Villa is all about. That’s a very good set of qualities.”

The former Liverpool Managing Director was clearly sold by this in just the one six-hour interview which led well into the night in Purslow’s hotel room, he added:

“We wanted a coach committed to playing football the right way and a coach that was intimately acquainted with who and what Aston Villa is.”

And that tells the story really.

The Villa boss has fully encaptured what the role is about – it helps to be a supporter, but that’s irrelevant because of the managerial ability which Purslow has described.

It’s clear to see that the CEO set out clear aims and ambitions for the club, and by getting the club back into the Premier League, that’s only just getting underway.

If the club did end up flirting with relegation, there’s a considerable chance that Smith is able to keep hold of his job, and that’s because of the vision created between the two, all originating from that eager overnight meeting.

Purslow seems to have his feet grounded and that should certainly play to Smith’s advantage.

Sheffield Wednesday’s predicted XI vs Stoke City in the Championship

Sheffield Wednesday will be looking to put Friday’s frustrations behind them as they host Stoke City at Hillsborough later tonight.

Garry Monk was furious with the decisions surrounding Cardiff City’s equaliser just a few days ago.

He believed that the foul which handed them the original free-kick was soft and that the decision to even allow the goal was incorrect because Bluebirds centre-back Aden Flint was blocking the goalkeeper’s vision.

Julian Borner’s striker-like volley looked to be enough for the Owls to return to south Yorkshire with three points until this incident occurred three minutes from time.

Stoke arrive on the back of an upturn in form after two successive victories, so will Monk make any changes for this encounter?

The 40-year-old may be forced into at least one substantial decision as goalkeeper Keiren Westwood was withdrawn just ten minutes before kickoff on Friday evening with Cameron Dawson replacing him.

Despite fans slamming him for his role in the Cardiff equaliser, Monk will surely stick with him and not risk the Irishman ahead of two games within five days.

He also continues to be without skipper Tom Lees, so the defence should remain much the same, after all, they only conceded a free-kick rather than something disastrous from open play.

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The Wednesday chief may elect to revert back to a 4-4-2, especially at home, with Fernando Forestieri in line for his first start since August – he returned from suspension in the Welsh capital but didn’t make an appearance from the bench.

Massimo Luongo would probably make way as the midfield pairing of Barry Bannan and Sam Hutchinson offers two different types of player – the stand-in captain has assisted three goals this term while the former Chelsea man averages 1.9 tackles per game.

Both Kadeem Harris and Adam Reach keep their place on the wing as Jacob Murphy continues to fail when given the opportunity.

Ex-Aston Villa man Micah Richards claims Grealish is better than James Maddison

[ad_pod ]Jack Grealish still hasn’t managed to earn himself an England cap.Despite his impressive performances for Aston Villa over the past 12 months, the 24-year-old is still waiting for his first call-up to the national team.His position is heavily contested though, as a number of young players like Dele Alli, Mason Mount and James Maddison are all vying for the attacking midfield role in the Three Lions squad.The pundits on BBC Radio 5 Live had a debate about whether Grealish was better than Maddison, and one former Villa player was adamant that his old teammate was the more talented of the two.

Micah Richards passionately went in to bat for the Villa captain, as he said that if Grealish played in a stronger squad he would look better than Maddison.

It’s a tough argument this one. On one hand, Grealish hasn’t done it in the Premier League yet, but on the other side of the fence, you can’t discount the performances he has been putting in over the past year.

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Maddison was reportedly valued at £70m over the summer and a more recent report from Manchester Evening News suggested Manchester United would have to fork out close to the Harry Maguire fee to land him, which was £80m.

And after a strong start to the season his average WhoScored rating stands at 7.42, so it’s hard to imagine that valuation dropping at all.

For Richards to say that Grealish is a better player is a huge call, but only time will tell if he or Chris Sutton will be the one left with egg on their face.

Tottenham will regain their spark by adopting the 4-2-3-1 formation again

This article is part of Football FanCast’s The Chalkboard series, which provides a tactical insight into teams, players, managers, potential signings and more…

It has been a hugely disappointing season for Tottenham Hotspur Football Club to date, summed up by their shocking 7-2 defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Tuesday night.

Mauricio Pochettino decided to go with a 4-4-2 diamond formation against the Bundesliga outfit, but it proved to be a largely disastrous decision.

On the chalkboard

The Argentine has largely chopped and changed his systems throughout the campaign so far, and according to Transfermarkt he has already utilised the 4-2-3-1, 4-2-2-2, 4-3-1-2, 4-4-2 diamond and 3-4-1-2 formations in their 10 fixtures to date.

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That lack of consistency may have proven to be an issue given some poor performances against the likes of Newcastle United, Olympiacos and Leicester City, and Pochettino’s latest call against Bayern certainly backfired.

Winks certainly wasn’t up to the task of being an out-and-out defensive midfielder at the base of the diamond, and it is clear that something else is needed – and it needs to be used continually to find that momentum.

Revert back to the 4-2-3-1

Yes, Pochettino has used it on three occasions this term according to Transfermarkt, but it needs to be a permanent fixture again.

As things stand it appears as though the 47-year-old is trying too hard to find a formation he can fit Winks, Tanguy Ndombele and Moussa Sissoko into, and it appears to be affecting their organisation and cohesion on the pitch.

Furthermore, they have the players that can make the 4-2-3-1 so successful – Lucas Moura, Erik Lamela, Son Heung-min, Ryan Sessegnon and Christian Eriksen can all make an impact in those wide positions, while the latter, Dele Alli and Giovani Lo Celso can all feature in more of a No.10 position.

Even Ndombele showed his ability to potentially play there with some impressive dribbling and a superb through-ball to Son in the opening exchanges of the clash against Bayern.

Pochettino also needs Dier – or a new defensive midfielder in January – to play at the base of the midfield alongside Winks, Sissoko or Ndombele to really make the most of it.

While there were a few deviations, the 4-2-3-1 was still the primary formation the former Southampton boss used during the 2015/16, 2016/17 and 2017/18 campaigns which brought third, second and third-place finishes respectively in the Premier League, and now they need to use it again to rediscover the spark that is missing.

Quick read: Alderweireld must retain place for Burnley clash

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Tottenham Hotspur face a tough visit to Turf Moor to take on Burnley on Saturday in a Premier League encounter. Realistically, Spurs have to win in order to maintain their status of title contenders.

On paper, Mauricio Pochettino’s men will be heavy favourites, but Sean Dyche’s team can be extremely hard to beat, especially on their own patch.

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The Clarets are very physical, and with the likes of Chris Wood, Ashley Barnes and Peter Crouch in their ranks they pose a serious aerial threat in the final third. For that reason, Toby Alderweireld must retain his place in Spurs’ starting XI.

The 29-year-old centre-back started against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League last time out, but did not start the previous league outing against Leicester City. Pochettino has rotated his defence frequently recently and having huge games against Arsenal, Chelsea and Dortmund on the horizon – along with the return to fitness of Danny Rose, which could allow Jan Vertonghen to resume his favoured central berth – could tempt the manager into resting Alderweireld against Burnley.

That would be a mistake though, as the Belgian’s experience and aerial prowess make him better suited to dealing with this specific opposition than the likes of Juan Foyth or Davinson Sanchez. Without him, Spurs will struggle.

Man Utd shown what James Maddison could add with Old Trafford display

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This article is part of Football FanCast’s In Numbers series, which takes a statistical look at performances, season-long form and reported transfer targets…

After a summer in which Manchester United’s only signings were Daniel James, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Harry Maguire, the club are naturally on the look-out for further reinforcements.

Already speculation has suggested the Red Devils are readying themselves for a big-money swoop for Borussia Dortmund sensation Jadon Sancho next year, and reports in recent weeks have claimed Maguire’s former teammate at Leicester, James Maddison, is also on United’s radar.

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Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side got a first-hand look at the midfielder on Saturday, and the 22-year-old’s all-action display proved exactly why United simply have to pull out all the stops to bring him to Old Trafford.

When you think of Maddison’s natural position, it is easy to think of him being a central attacking midfielder. After all, out of his 38 games last season, 18 of them came in that number ten role. But this season under Brendan Rodgers he has operated more from the left-hand side.

The England U21 international lined up in front of Ben Chilwell on the flank, and no doubt the idea behind that was for him to drift inside and play balls in behind the United defence for Jamie Vardy to latch on to. Whilst the Red Devils’ rearguard held firm, Maddison still had a highly influential game for his side.

Per Whoscored, his 11 crosses were a game-high (and seven more than any other player on the pitch), whilst his five dribbles were also the most of anyone during the game.

The former Norwich man embraced the responsibility of being Leicester’s key provider, and when things didn’t appear to work out too well in that regard, he tried to take matters into his own hands by registering three shots.

Off-the-ball, the 22-year-old was equally as effective. Solskjaer’s intent on implementing a high-intensity approach that revolves around pressing from the front requires players who are willing to put the work in. Maddison showed he is perfectly capable of buying into that philosophy by making four tackles – the joint-second highest of any of his teammates.

All in all, the midfielder highlighted everything he has in his locker. If Saturday’s game was a transfer audition for a future switch to Old Trafford, then he undoubtedly passed it with flying colours.

Liverpool fans happy at Milner update

A number of Liverpool supporters are happy after journalist Neil Jones claimed James Milner would leave the Reds in the summer.

The 36-year-old has proved to be a fantastic servant for Liverpool since arriving on a free transfer from Manchester City back in the summer of 2015.

Milner has made a total of 272 appearances for the Reds, using his experience to great use and winning both the Premier League and the Champions League.

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The midfielder’s current deal expires this summer, however, and it may be that his time at Anfield comes to an end at that point.

That certainly seems to be the opinion of Goal‘s Jones [via Anfield Watch on Twitter], who claims that Milner is ‘expected to leave’ once the season reaches its conclusion.

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Liverpool fans react to Milner claim

It’s fair to say the versatile veteran hasn’t been at his best this season, and these Liverpool fans reacted to the news positively on Twitter, claiming it is the right time for him to move on.

“Great news”

Credit: @2kelo_tuks

“Thank you Lord”

Credit: @charmokwana

“This is the best news of the year so far. Strip #7 off of him and give it to Harvey or Diaz”

Credit: @Sabista_

“Good”

Credit: @Smartooski

“Milner off to Leeds where he’ll be a player-coach”

Credit: @yemoisakop

“Give Diaz no.7 then I beg”

Credit: @BSSLFC

In other news, Liverpool have reportedly made an ‘official proposal’ for one player. Find out who it is here.

Liverpool receive Trent injury boost

Trent Alexander-Arnold could be fit for Liverpool’s vital Premier League clash with Manchester City, according to journalist James Pearce.

The Lowdown: Liverpool suffer Trent blow

The Reds are firing on all cylinders at the moment, with their quadruple chances still alive going into April, in what could be a legendary season at Anfield.

They suffered a blow recently, however, with Alexander-Arnold suffering a hamstring issue in the 2-0 win away to Arsenal in the Premier League.

It was reported that he would miss ‘weeks’ and therefore the potentially season-defining trip to City on April 10th, but that may have changed.

The Latest: Promising update emerges

Taking to Twitter on Tuesday, The Athletic‘s Pearce claimed that Alexander-Arnold could now be available, in what is a significant update:

“Trent Alexander-Arnold’s rehab progressing well. Chance he could be fit for crunch clash at the Etihad on April 10 – but that would be a quick return. Important hurdles still to clear. (Includes an update on Naby Keita too).”

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The Verdict: Potentially result-defining

Alexander-Arnold’s influence is absolutely enormous, so him starting at the Etihad a week on Sunday has the potential to alter Liverpool’s title chances.

The 23-year-old is the Reds’ main creative force, registering 15 assists this season, with so much of their play coming through his wand of a right foot, in terms of his passing, crossing and energy down the flank.

Alexander-Arnold being fit would give City so much more to worry about than if Joe Gomez plays at right-back, with all due respect to the makeshift full-back, and it would enhance Liverpool’s hopes of picking up one of their biggest Premier League wins of all time.

In other news, Fabrizio Romano has dropped a key Liverpool transfer claim. Read more here.

Romano reveals Everton transfer update

Everton have now officially sold Lucas Digne to Aston Villa, and in return are set to take one of their players off their hands and a fresh update on the move has been revealed.

What’s the word?

Fabrizio Romano has revealed an update on Everton’s signing of Anwar El Ghazi.

The Italian transfer insider tweeted in the early hours of this morning:

“Anwar El Ghazi has signed his contract as new Everton player, deal sealed and here-we-go confirmed. Medical completed, official announcement will be today.

“El Ghazi joins on loan from Aston Villa. Buy option clause [not mandatory] is also included in the deal.”

Fans will be furious

The move for El Ghazi to Everton is one that will come tinged with negativity, as he is signing at the cost of fan favourite, Digne, and when you look at Everton’s team, the signing of a winger doesn’t seem to be a priority position to fill in the team.

After all, they already have the likes of Andros Townsend, Demarai Gray, Anthony Gordon and Alex Iwobi at their disposal in that area of the pitch.

Toffees fans have taken to social media to share their thoughts and their confusion on the signing of the Dutch attacker, with one fan exclaiming:

“We’re wasting money to replace players who don’t get a game then? El Ghazi to replace our 5th choice winger? Clearly the priority should have been a CDM/CM to replace Allan, one of our best players, essential to breaking up play, who Rafa seems determined to drive out next.”

Another furious fan tweeted:

“Gone from Carlo, James, Digne to Rafa, Rondon, El Ghazi. Biggest downgrade in history.”

Indeed, it’s easy to see why they’re so angry about proceedings. The club seems to have not learned their lesson about wasting money on players that they don’t need, with owner Farhad Moshiri making a large number of signings in his time as owner of the club.

He has spent over £500m without the Toffees progressing or winning any trophies in the process, and as a consequence, they now that they sit 15th in the Premier League, just six points off relegation.

Therefore, the idea of signing a player who isn’t even a regular at one of their league rivals is a puzzling one as it’s unlikely to take them to the next level at all.

It will be interesting to see how Benitez will fit the Villa man into his line-up and whether he will become a first-team player, replacing a starter already in the side.

In other news: Everton should land Dele Alli

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